Observed changes in SAT and GDD and the climatological suitability of the Poland-Germany-Czech Republic transboundary region for wine grapes cultivation     

Maciej Kryza  Mariusz Szymanowski  Marek Błaś  Krzysztof Migała  Małgorzata Werner  Mieczysław Sobik 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2015,122(1-2):207-218

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Nowcasting sunshine number using logistic modeling     

Marek Brabec  Viorel Badescu  Marius Paulescu 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2013,120(1-2):61-71

In this paper, we present a formalized approach to statistical modeling of the sunshine number, binary indicator of whether the Sun is covered by clouds introduced previously by Badescu (Theor Appl Climatol 72:127–136, 2002). Our statistical approach is based on Markov chain and logistic regression and yields fully specified probability models that are relatively easily identified (and their unknown parameters estimated) from a set of empirical data (observed sunshine number and sunshine stability number series). We discuss general structure of the model and its advantages, demonstrate its performance on real data and compare its results to classical ARIMA approach as to a competitor. Since the model parameters have clear interpretation, we also illustrate how, e.g., their inter-seasonal stability can be tested. We conclude with an outlook to future developments oriented to construction of models allowing for practically desirable smooth transition between data observed with different frequencies and with a short discussion of technical problems that such a goal brings.  相似文献   

Timing of glacier advances and climate in the High Tatra Mountains (Western Carpathians) during the Last Glacial Maximum     

Michał Makos  Jan Dzierżek  Jerzy Nitychoruk  Marek Zreda 《Quaternary Research》2014

During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), long valley glaciers developed on the northern and southern sides of the High Tatra Mountains, Poland and Slovakia. Chlorine-36 exposure dating of moraine boulders suggests two major phases of moraine stabilization, at 26–21 ka (LGM I — maximum) and at 18 ka (LGM II). The dates suggest a significantly earlier maximum advance on the southern side of the range. Reconstructing the geometry of four glaciers in the Sucha Woda, Pańszczyca, Mlynicka and Velicka valleys allowed determining their equilibrium-line altitudes (ELAs) at 1460, 1460, 1650 and 1700 m asl, respectively. Based on a positive degree-day model, the mass balance and climatic parameter anomaly (temperature and precipitation) has been constrained for LGM I advance. Modeling results indicate slightly different conditions between northern and southern slopes. The N–S ELA gradient finds confirmation in slightly higher temperature (at least 1 °C) or lower precipitation (15%) on the south-facing glaciers during LGM I. The precipitation distribution over the High Tatra Mountains indicates potentially different LGM atmospheric circulation than at the present day, with reduced northwesterly inflow and increased southerly and westerly inflows of moist air masses.  相似文献   

Bianchi Cosmologies as Dynamical Systems     

Andrzej J. Maciejewski  Marek Szydłowski 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1999,73(1-4):17-24

We discuss specific properties of dynamical systems originating from cosmology and relativity. In particular, we present results of our study of the Bianchi class A cosmological models. We introduce new variables in which the Hamiltonian constraint for all the class A models is solved algebraically. We present results of dimension reduction of the investigated models. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

A palaeomagnetic study of fracture fills in the Holy Cross Mountains of Central Poland and its application in dating tectonic processes     

Marek Lewandowski 《Geophysical Journal International》1999,137(3):783-792

Calcite and sedimentary fills in fractures cutting the Upper Devonian carbonates in the Holy Cross Mountains (HCM) were dated palaeomagnetically by comparison with the apparent polar wander path (APWP). Haematite-bearing calcite possessed well-defined components of natural remanent magnetization (NRM), which were preserved under thermal demagnetization to temperatures of approximately 500 °C, when specimens disintegrated. Although not completely demagnetized, some specimens revealed a stable NRM component before destruction, thus making a component analysis possible. Five components were determined using density point distribution and cluster analysis. One has a mean that is similar to the present-day local geomagnetic vector. The remaining four components yielded palaeomagnetic poles located at: A (70.3°S, 5.5°E), B (71.3°S, 31.2°E), C (48.7°S, 351.0°E, virtual geomagnetic pole), and D (11.6°S, 312.3°E). Antipodal polarities found in the fracture fills, together with dissimilarities in magnetization found in calcite and hosting carbonates, indicate the lack of simultaneous remagnetization, and different times of remanence acquisition for the rocks under comparison. Taking both palaeomagnetically inferred palaeolatitudes and regional tectonics into consideration, a Mesozoic (Cretaceous?) age is estimated for palaeopoles A and B, a Permian age for pole C, and a Carboniferous age for pole D. These age determinations are in line with the calcite ages estimated from isotopic studies. A comparative palaeomagnetic study performed on a well-dated Upper Devonian neptunian dyke of limestone and a Lower Triassic clastic vein yielded virtual geomagnetic poles (VGPs) close to the APWP for Baltica. Generally, the remanence from fracture fills may be useful for dating related tectonics, karst phenomena and mineralization processes.  相似文献   

Analysis of the primary and secondary microseisms in the wavefield of the ambient noise recorded in northern Poland     

Simone Lepore  Marek Grad 《Acta Geophysica》2018,66(5):915-929

Seasonal changes of the primary and secondary microseisms were analysed in the wavefield of the ambient noise recorded during the entire 2014 at the “13 BB star” array located in northern Poland, composed of thirteen, symmetrically arranged, broadband seismic stations. To that, spectral analysis, seismic interferometry, surface scalar wind speed distribution, and beamforming were used. Spectral analysis allowed to observe that a splitting of the secondary microseism peak was present in winter and autumn, and that the primary microseism peak was visible in spring, summer and autumn. Using seismic interferometry, the long-term characteristics of the noise wavefield were recognized. The seasonal variations of the secondary microseism source were described by means of the analysis of the surface scalar wind speed for each month. The splitting of the secondary peak was attributed to the interaction of a strong wind blowing from the North Sea with a weak wind blowing from the Baltic Sea. The seasonal variations of the primary microseism peak were characterized through the frequency-domain beamforming. The peak was identified during spring, summer and autumn, when the generated wavefield was coming from the Baltic Sea. The velocity of the wavefield was evaluated within the 2.0–5.0 km/s range. The described mechanism of generation of the microseisms, based on the interaction of the nearby winds, was found to be consistent with the models reported in the literature.  相似文献   

Sub-annual moraine formation at an active temperate Icelandic glacier     

Benjamin M.P. Chandler  Samuel J.P. Chandler  David J.A. Evans  Marek W. Ewertowski  Harold Lovell  David H. Roberts  Martin Schaefer  Aleksandra M. Tomczyk 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(7):1622-1643

This paper presents detailed geomorphological and sedimentological investigations of small recessional moraines at Fjallsjökull, an active temperate outlet of Öræfajökull, southeast Iceland. The moraines are characterized by striking sawtooth or hairpin planforms, which are locally superimposed, giving rise to a complex spatial pattern. We recognize two distinct populations of moraines, namely a group of relatively prominent moraine ridges (mean height ~1.2 m) and a group of comparatively low-relief moraines (mean height ~0.4 m). These two groups often occur in sets/systems, comprising one pronounced outer ridge and several inset smaller moraines. Using a representative subsample of the moraines, we establish that they form by either (i) submarginal deformation and squeezing of subglacial till or (ii) pushing of extruded tills. Locally, proglacial (glaciofluvial) sediments are also incorporated within the moraines during pushing. For the first time, to our knowledge, we demonstrate categorically that these moraines formed sub-annually using repeat uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) imagery. We present a conceptual model for sub-annual moraine formation at Fjallsjökull that proposes the sawtooth moraine sequence comprises (i) sets of small squeeze moraines formed during melt-driven squeeze events and (ii) larger push moraines formed during winter re-advances. We suggest the development of this process-form regime is linked to a combination of elevated temperatures, high surface meltwater fluxes to the bed and emerging basal topography (a depositional overdeepening). These factors result in highly saturated subglacial sediments and high porewater pressures, which induces submarginal deformation and ice-marginal squeezing during the melt season. Strong glacier recession during the summer, driven by elevated temperatures, allows several squeeze moraines to be emplaced. This process-form regime may be characteristic of active temperate glaciers receding into overdeepenings during phases of elevated temperatures, especially where their englacial drainage systems allow efficient transfer of surface meltwater to the glacier bed near the snout margin. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd  相似文献   

Modelling hydraulic and capillary-driven two-phase fluid flow in unsaturated concretes at the meso-scale with a unique coupled DEM-CFD technique     

Marek Krzaczek  Michał Nitka  Jacek Tejchman 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2023,47(1):23-53

The goal of the research was to demonstrate the impact of thin porous interfacial transition zones (ITZs) between aggregates and cement matrix on fluid flow in unsaturated concrete caused by hydraulic/capillary pressure. To demonstrate this impact, a novel coupled approach to simulate the two-phase (water and moist air) flow of hydraulically and capillary-driven fluid in unsaturated concrete was developed. By merging the discrete element method (DEM) with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) under isothermal settings, the process was numerically studied at the meso-scale in two-dimensional conditions. A flow network was used to describe fluid behaviour in a continuous domain between particles. Small concrete specimens of a simplified particle mesostructure were subjected to fully coupled hydro-mechanical simulation tests. A simple uniaxial compression test was used to calibrate the pure DEM represented by bonded spheres, while a permeability and sorptivity test for an assembly of spheres was used to calibrate the pure CFD. For simplified specimens of the pure cement matrix, cement matrix with aggregate, and cement matrix with aggregate and ITZ of a given thickness, DEM/CFD simulations were performed sequentially. The numerical results of permeability and sorptivity were directly compared to the data found in the literature. A satisfactory agreement was achieved. Porous ITZs in concrete were found to reduce sorption by slowing the capillary-driven fluid flow, and to speed the full saturation of pores when sufficiently high hydraulic water pressures were dominant.  相似文献